Project Geologist Jack Williams is a co-author of two recent publications that have investigated the challenges and opportunities with using physics-based earthquake simulators in seismic hazard analysis. These simulators use a simplified understanding of earthquake physics to generate long-term earthquake catalogs across a network of known faults. The spatial-temporal distribution of earthquakes that emerges from these catalogs can then be used in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
In the first publication in Seismica, Jack and his colleagues used the simulator RSQSim to develop a 10,000-year-long synthetic record of earthquakes along the Main Himalayan Thrust. From this, they captured new insights into the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along the Main Himalayan Thrust and Nepal’s seismic hazard. Full article here
The second article in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America compares a RSQSim catalog of earthquakes in New Zealand with the seismicity indicated by the 2022 New Zealand Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). This comparison indicates that RSQSim can produce seismicity that is credible in the context of the 2022 NZ NSHM’s uncertainty. However, it also highlights that prior to their use in seismic hazard assessments, there is need to carefully assess the sensitivity of earthquake simulators and test them against independent empirical data.
This research was principally funded through the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges research program in New Zealand. Through Jack’s involvement in this research, LCI is now at the forefront for investigating how earthquake simulators could address the limitations of conventional seismic hazard source characterization. Full article here
